Rooftop Solar South Africa: Demand Surge Expected by 2025
Rooftop solar demand in South Africa is projected to rise significantly by 2025, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The report, titled “Solar Rooftop PV Global Market Outlook,” highlights the potential for distributed solar PV to reach 1 TW of capacity by 2030, thereby doubling the current levels. This increase is attributed to reduced costs and improved energy security.
Global and Local Trends in Rooftop Solar South Africa
The report reveals that 70% of the global distributed PV capacity is concentrated in seven countries: China, the United States, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, and India. However, the IEA report also predicts that demand for rooftop solar will expand to emerging markets such as South Africa, Brazil, and Indonesia.
South Africa is expected to experience a boom in rooftop solar installations due to ongoing power shortages and load shedding issues. The IEA report states that “the South African residential market is currently experiencing significant growth, driven by severe power shortages.” The country’s distributed PV capacity is projected to nearly triple, reaching 1.8 GW by 2025. Recent reports show that South Africa’s solar projects reached significant milestones in 2024, with private-sector solar PV capacity making a notable impact on the country’s energy landscape.
Globally, distributed PV applications, which include solar panels on rooftops and industrial facilities, accounted for 15% of new solar PV additions in 2023. The IEA report notes that “distributed PV applications are projected to reach 1 TW of capacity by 2030, doubling current levels.” In 2023 alone, distributed PV additions reached 35 GW, a significant increase from the 5 GW added a decade ago.
Economic and Security Benefits of Rooftop Solar South Africa
The report highlights the economic and security benefits of distributed PV installations, particularly in emerging markets. For South Africa, rooftop solar offers a viable solution to the country’s energy crisis and reduces reliance on the struggling national grid. The IEA report emphasizes that “in emerging markets, distributed PV is an attractive option for consumers as it can deliver electricity at a lower cost than the grid, especially in areas with high power prices or unreliable supply.”
The cost of distributed PV systems has also decreased significantly, making them more accessible to a wider range of consumers. The IEA report indicates that “cost reductions in PV modules and improvements in system efficiency have made distributed PV systems more affordable, with prices dropping by 70% in the last decade.”
In addition to cost savings, rooftop solar installations provide enhanced energy security. The IEA report notes that “distributed PV systems can provide electricity during grid outages, making them an attractive option for consumers in areas with frequent power cuts.” This is particularly relevant for South Africa, where load shedding has become a persistent issue. Reports indicate that by March 2024, approximately 5,440 MW of residential and rooftop solar had been installed in South Africa, further underscoring the viability of solar solutions in addressing power shortages.
Policy Support and Future Outlook for Rooftop Solar South Africa
The IEA report stresses the importance of policy support in driving the adoption of rooftop solar. In South Africa, the government has introduced several initiatives to promote the use of solar energy, including tax incentives for rooftop solar installations and net metering policies that allow consumers to sell excess electricity back to the grid.
Looking ahead, the IEA report projects that the global rooftop solar market will continue to grow, driven by falling costs, technological advancements, and increasing demand for clean energy. The report concludes that “by 2030, distributed PV could provide up to 20% of the world’s electricity supply, contributing significantly to global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change.”
In South Africa, the expected increase in rooftop solar installations is likely to play a crucial role in addressing the country’s energy challenges. With distributed PV capacity projected to reach 1.8 GW by 2025, rooftop solar could become a key component of South Africa’s energy mix, providing reliable and cost-effective electricity to millions of households and businesses. Despite challenges such as grid capacity constraints and high capital costs, the demand for rooftop solar is set to rise, supported by growing awareness and government initiatives. The IEA report underscores the growing importance of rooftop solar in the global energy landscape, highlighting its potential to transform energy systems and enhance energy security. For South Africa, the rise in rooftop solar demand offers a promising solution to the country’s ongoing energy crisis and a pathway to a more sustainable energy future.
