Future-Proofing Production: A Phased Investment Plan for a PERC to TOPCon Solar Factory in the UAE

Disclaimer: This case study represents a composite example derived from real-world
consulting work by J.v.G. Technology GmbH in solar module production and factory optimization. All data points are realistic but simplified for clarity and educational purposes.

An investor in Dubai, observing the rapid growth of solar energy across the region, sees a significant business opportunity in local manufacturing. But he faces a critical question: how to invest in a solar factory today when the core technology seems to change every few years?

Investing heavily in the current standard, PERC, feels risky if a superior technology like TOPCon makes it obsolete. Yet, jumping directly to the newest technology might mean higher costs and unforeseen operational challenges.

This is a common dilemma for new entrants in the solar manufacturing industry. The solution isn’t to predict the future perfectly, but to plan for it strategically. A phased investment approach—starting with a ‘TOPCon-Ready’ PERC line and executing a planned upgrade later—offers a path to enter the market confidently and ensure long-term competitiveness.

This article outlines a blueprint for this phased approach, specifically tailored to the operational and market context of the United Arab Emirates.

The Technology Crossroads: Why PERC to TOPCon is the Key Transition

Understanding the technologies involved is key to this strategy. For years, PERC (Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell) has been the workhorse of the solar industry, offering a strong balance of efficiency and manufacturing cost. It became the dominant technology, driving the global expansion of solar power.

However, the industry’s pursuit of higher efficiency is relentless. The successor technology gaining momentum is TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact). Without delving into excessive technical detail, TOPCon represents an evolution of the PERC cell structure, adding ultra-thin layers that significantly reduce electrical losses. The result is a notable gain in power output from a module of the same size.

Market data confirms this is not a distant trend but an imminent shift. According to the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV), TOPCon technology is projected to overtake PERC’s market share, potentially exceeding 60% of global production within the next two to three years. For an investor, this means a factory that can only produce PERC modules may struggle to compete on efficiency and price in the near future.

The Investment Dilemma: A Full Commitment vs. A Staged Approach

Faced with this technological shift, an investor has two primary choices:

1. Invest in a full TOPCon line from day one: This ensures the factory produces a top-tier product immediately but comes with a higher initial capital expenditure, estimated to be 15-20% more than a standard PERC line. It may also involve a steeper learning curve with a less mature production process.

2. Invest in a standard PERC line: This lowers the initial investment but creates a significant risk of the factory’s output becoming uncompetitive within three to five years, necessitating a costly and potentially disruptive overhaul later.

A third, more strategic option is the phased approach: building a PERC line designed from the outset to be upgraded.

This method bridges the gap, allowing a business to enter the market with a proven technology while having a clear, costed, and scheduled plan to adopt the next generation of technology when the market demands it. A comprehensive understanding of the financial scope is critical, and our guide on investment requirements for a solar factory outlines these costs in more detail.

A Blueprint for a Phased Factory in the UAE

Let’s consider a practical scenario for a 50 MW facility in the UAE. The plan is divided into two distinct, interconnected phases.

Phase 1: Establishing a ‘TOPCon-Ready’ PERC Production Line

The initial goal is to become operational quickly and efficiently, producing high-quality PERC modules for the current market. However, every decision is made with the future upgrade in mind.

• Initial Capacity: 50 MW per year.
• Estimated Initial Investment: Approximately €5–7 million.
• Key Equipment: The core of a PERC line includes a stringer, laminator, framer, and testing equipment (Sun Simulator, EL Tester). A critical decision is selecting machinery that is already compatible with TOPCon cells (e.g., capable of handling thinner n-type wafers) or can be easily modified.
• Facility & Labor: This requires a production facility of around 5,000 square meters and a workforce of 30–40 employees.
• Timeline: From planning to commissioning, this phase typically takes 9 to 12 months. Experience gained from numerous European PV manufacturers’ turnkey projects shows that a structured project plan is essential for meeting this timeline.
• UAE-Specific Considerations: Equipment must be specified to perform reliably in high ambient temperatures and dusty conditions. The module design should also be optimized for high solar irradiation and potential challenges like sand abrasion.

The outcome of Phase 1 is a fully functional, profitable PERC factory. Crucially, it has been built with the foresight that an upgrade is not a possibility, but a certainty. A comprehensive overview of the necessary solar module manufacturing machines can provide further detail on equipment selection.

Phase 2: The Strategic Upgrade to TOPCon

After two to three years of operation, as the market fully shifts towards higher efficiency modules, the pre-planned upgrade is executed. Because the initial line was ‘TOPCon-Ready,’ this process is more of an augmentation than a complete overhaul.

• Upgrade Scope: The primary additions are the specialized machines required for the TOPCon process, such as LPCVD (Low-Pressure Chemical Vapor Deposition) or PECVD (Plasma-Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition) systems. Some other machinery, like the cell tester and stringer, may require minor adjustments or software updates.
• Estimated Upgrade Investment: Approximately €1.5–2.5 million.
• Projected Downtime: A well-coordinated upgrade, planned from the beginning, can be completed with only four to six weeks of production downtime.
• Performance Gain: The upgraded line will be capable of producing TOPCon modules with an absolute efficiency gain of 1-1.5% over their PERC predecessors—a significant competitive advantage.

This staged execution transforms the initial factory into a state-of-the-art facility, perfectly timed with market evolution. This strategic planning is a core component of how to start a solar module factory successfully.

Financial and Operational Advantages of the Phased Strategy

Choosing a phased investment over a single, high-stakes decision offers clear business benefits, particularly for entrepreneurs new to the solar sector.

• Reduced Initial Capital Risk: The lower entry cost of a PERC line makes the project more accessible and financially manageable. Capital for the upgrade can be financed from the initial years of operational revenue.
• Market-Timed Technology Adoption: The business upgrades when TOPCon cells are widely available, prices have stabilized, and market demand for higher-efficiency modules is well-established.
• Builds Operational Expertise: The initial phase allows the management and technical teams to master the fundamentals of solar module manufacturing with a stable, well-understood process (PERC) before adding the complexity of a newer technology.
• Ensures Long-Term Competitiveness: The pre-planned path to TOPCon ensures the factory does not become a stranded asset. It is built for a decade of relevance, not just the present moment.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the primary difference between PERC and TOPCon modules?

The main difference is efficiency. TOPCon cells reduce energy loss within the cell, allowing the finished module to generate more electricity from the same amount of sunlight compared to a PERC module of the same size. This is especially valuable where installation space is limited.

Why not just build a TOPCon factory from the beginning?

While possible, it requires a higher initial investment and can involve greater process complexity. For a new entrant, starting with a mature PERC process allows the team to build experience and cash flow before adopting the next wave of technology. The phased approach mitigates both financial and operational risks.

What does ‘TOPCon-Ready’ equipment actually mean?

It means selecting machines that can handle the physical properties of both PERC and future TOPCon cells. For example, TOPCon often uses n-type wafers, which can be thinner and require more delicate handling. A ‘TOPCon-Ready’ stringer would be designed to manage this without needing to be replaced.

How much more power does a TOPCon module produce?

A typical residential-size TOPCon module might produce 20-30 watts more than a PERC module of the same dimensions. In a large utility-scale project, this increased power density translates into significant savings on land, mounting structures, and labor.

Is this phased strategy applicable in other regions?

Absolutely. While this example is tailored to the UAE, the strategic logic of de-risking technology adoption is universal. It is particularly relevant in any emerging market where establishing a local manufacturing footprint requires careful capital management and long-term planning.

Conclusion: Building for Tomorrow, Starting Today

The transition from PERC to TOPCon is a defining moment for the solar manufacturing industry. For entrepreneurs looking to enter this space, the transition is both a challenge and an opportunity. By adopting a phased investment strategy, a new business can navigate this shift intelligently.

Starting with a ‘TOPCon-Ready’ PERC line establishes a market presence with a proven, profitable technology. The planned, pre-costed upgrade ensures the facility remains a competitive asset for years to come. This approach transforms the intimidating task of technological forecasting into a manageable, strategic business plan. With proper guidance and a clear roadmap, building a future-proof solar factory is an achievable goal.

Download: Future-Proofing UAE Solar Production Case Study (PDF)

Author: This case study was prepared by the
turnkey solar module production specialists at J.V.G. Technology GmbH
It is based on real data and consulting experience from J.v.G. projects
worldwide, including installations ranging from 20 MW to 500 MW capacity.