Here’s an enhanced version of the blog post, incorporating the provided context and tailored for a German audience:
According to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), rooftop solar in Australia is projected to contribute 12.2% of the country’s electricity generation by 2025. This signifies a rapid growth in rooftop solar capacity, up from 8.7% in 2023. This trend offers valuable lessons for countries like Germany, where the expansion of renewable energy is also a key priority.
Australia Rooftop Solar to Outpace Coal Generation
The AEMO’s 2024 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) indicates that rooftop solar PV will become the second-largest contributor to electricity generation in the National Electricity Market (NEM), surpassing black coal and trailing only utility-scale solar.
This shift is significant. In Germany, similar efforts are underway to reduce reliance on coal and increase the share of renewables in the energy mix. The Australian example demonstrates the potential of distributed solar generation to drive this transition. As in Australia, rooftop solar is reshaping Australia’s energy mix.
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According to the ESOO, residential rooftop solar is projected to generate 28.6 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2025 โ up from 20.7 TWh in 2023. This will account for 12.2% of the electricity generated in the NEM, second only to large-scale solar which is expected to generate 36.4 TWh (15.6%) of electricity.
In 2025, black coal generation is expected to decrease to 73.7 TWh, accounting for 31.6% of electricity in the NEM โ a significant drop from 104.7 TWh (44.2%) in 2023. This decline is part of a broader trend, with black coal generation expected to fall to 50.4 TWh (22.1%) by 2028. For German homeowners and tenants, this highlights the importance of government policies and incentives that encourage the adoption of solar energy to meet its 2030 rooftop solar targets.
Australia Rooftop Solar Installations Reach 23.2 GW
By the end of 2023, the total installed capacity of rooftop solar in the NEM reached 23.2 GW, with 3.8 GW added during the year. This growth was driven by high electricity prices, a strong rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, and increased adoption by commercial and industrial (C&I) customers. Australia powers ahead on rooftop solar, with new data showing rooftop solar provided 12.8 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation in the first half of 2025.
The ESOO projects that rooftop solar capacity will continue to grow steadily, reaching 46.2 GW by 2038. This growth is expected to be driven by declining technology costs, rising electricity prices, and increasing demand for electrification.
Solar to Overtake Black Coal in 2025 with Australia Rooftop Solar
The ESOO projects that total solar generation โ including both rooftop and utility-scale solar โ will surpass black coal generation in 2025, with an estimated 65.1 TWh of solar generation compared to 73.7 TWh of black coal.
By 2028, solar generation is expected to reach 94.2 TWh, while black coal generation is projected to fall to 50.4 TWh. Solar is expected to continue to grow, reaching 163.5 TWh by 2038, while black coal generation is projected to decline to 7.3 TWh. As of June 2025, Australia’s over 4.16 million solar PV installations had a combined capacity of 35.3GW.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) anticipates a significant increase in rooftop solar capacity over the next two decades. This growth is expected to be driven by declining technology costs, rising retail electricity prices, and increasing demand for electrification. For German readers, this underscores the long-term economic and environmental benefits of investing in solar energy, aligning with Germany’s own ambitious renewable energy targets.
