EU Solar Additions Peak in 2024, EU Solar Decline Expected
The European Union (EU) is projected to experience a slowdown in solar capacity growth by 2025. This follows the addition of 55 GW of new capacity in 2023, a 25% increase from the previous year. SolarPower Europe’s 2024 EU Market Outlook report highlights that annual additions are set to peak at 59 GW in 2024 before declining to 55 GW in 2025. This projected dip aligns with broader concerns about potential slowdowns, as discussed in articles like this one predicting a shocking 2025 drop (PVknowhow.com).
This anticipated slowdown is attributed to policy changes in major markets, such as the cancellation of the “Solar for All” program (PVknowhow.com), and ongoing challenges related to grid connections and permitting. The report underscores the need for continued investment and policy support to maintain the momentum of solar expansion in the EU.
Residential Sector Growth Amidst EU Solar Decline
The residential sector has been the driving force behind solar growth, accounting for 46% of all new installations in 2023. This sector added 26.3 GW of solar capacity, a 32% increase from the previous year. Poland, Germany, and France were the largest contributors, adding 7.3 GW, 5.5 GW, and 5 GW, respectively. Germany’s impressive growth aligns with its overall capacity increase, as highlighted in reports like this one showing Germany achieving 94.6 GW in Q1 2025 (PVknowhow.com).
The commercial and industrial (C&I) segment was the second-largest contributor, adding 14.4 GW, a 6% increase from 2022. However, the utility-scale segment experienced a decline, adding 14.3 GW, down from 15.9 GW the previous year.
The report notes that the market is becoming more diversified across sectors. The residential segment’s dominance is expected to continue in the short term, accounting for 45% of the total market in 2024. However, by 2025, the C&I segment is projected to overtake residential installations, accounting for 43% of the total market. This shift may be influenced by the increasing prevalence of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), as evidenced by the substantial growth in European solar PPAs in H1 2025 (PVknowhow.com).
EU Solar Capacity Growth and the EU Solar Decline
The European Union is on track to surpass 400 GW of cumulative solar capacity by 2025, with the total expected to reach 473 GW by 2025 and 578 GW by 2027. This growth will see solar energy’s share in the EU’s electricity mix increase from 11.8% in 2023 to 15.4% by 2025.
Germany, Spain, and Poland are projected to remain the top three solar markets in the EU over the next four years, contributing 38% of the total new capacity from 2024 to 2027. Germany alone is expected to add 77 GW during this period.
However, several markets are expected to experience a slowdown in growth. Poland, Portugal, and Belgium are projected to see annual additions decrease by 75%, 55%, and 31%, respectively, by 2027. This is attributed to policy changes and the need for greater market diversification and resilience.
Challenges and Opportunities Despite the EU Solar Decline
The report highlights key challenges facing the solar industry, including limited grid capacity and slow permitting processes. These issues are expected to contribute to slower growth in several markets, including Poland and Portugal. Tariff disputes, such as the petition challenging Laos solar imports (PVknowhow.com), also add complexity to the landscape.
Despite these challenges, the EU’s solar capacity is projected to continue growing, with a total installed capacity expected to reach 473 GW by 2025. This growth will contribute to the EU’s climate goals and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Initiatives like a 2.9 MW community solar project in Gainesville, New York, using American-made solar panels, demonstrate innovative approaches to expanding solar access (PVknowhow.com).
The report underscores the importance of addressing these challenges to ensure sustainable growth in the solar sector. This includes streamlining permitting processes, expanding grid capacity, and implementing supportive policies to encourage investment in solar energy. Furthermore, exploring diverse models like community solar and focusing on domestic manufacturing can contribute to a more resilient and robust solar industry.
