While renowned for its vast hydropower resources, Norway possesses a massive, largely untapped solar energy potential. A groundbreaking analysis has quantified this opportunity, revealing that the nation could realistically install and integrate 31 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV systems on its building stock.
Quantifying a Solar Future Where 31 GW of Rooftop Solar PV can be Installed in Norway
The research, led by Hassan Gholami of the Norwegian consultancy Multiconsult, provides a detailed roadmap for this potential expansion. Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis, simulations of solar photovoltaic performance, and a decade’s worth of hourly electricity demand data (2013-2021), the study first identified a total technical potential of 87 GW on Norwegian rooftops and walls. The highest concentration of this potential was found in the country’s eastern region, which includes the capital, Oslo.
However, the study goes beyond mere technical capacity to assess how much of this power could be smoothly absorbed by the national grid. The findings pinpoint 31 GW as the optimal integration level, representing about 36% of the total technical potential. “Integrating photovoltaic capacity up to 36% of the calculated capacity, which will be 31 GWp allows smooth incorporation of solar power into the grid, effectively matching production with consumption,” the researchers stated. This capacity ensures grid stability by aligning energy generation with the country’s consumption patterns.
Balancing Generation with Demand for the 31 GW of Rooftop Solar PV that can be Installed in Norway
The analysis also issues a crucial warning: exceeding the 31 GW threshold could introduce significant challenges. Higher levels of solar generation, especially during peak summer months, would likely outstrip consumption, leading to energy losses or the need to export surplus power. This underscores the necessity for strategic planning by grid operators and policymakers to manage the intermittent nature of solar energy.
Even at this substantial 31 GW level, the resulting solar power output—estimated at approximately 65 TWh—would not fully meet Norway’s annual electricity consumption of 132 TWh. This highlights that building-integrated solar is poised to be a critical component of a diversified renewable energy mix, complementing the nation’s foundational hydropower.
Industry Growth and Projections for When 31 GW of Rooftop Solar PV can be Installed in Norway
Norway’s solar sector is already on an upward trajectory. By the end of 2023, the country’s cumulative installed PV capacity reached 597 MW, spurred by the connection of two large-scale solar plants. According to the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), numerous utility-scale projects are now navigating the approval process, signaling robust investor interest.
Looking ahead, the momentum is expected to accelerate. “A compelling forecast indicates that several of these entities are poised to realize their first utility-scale solar PV sites by the conclusion of 2025, ushering in a new era of solar energy deployment in Norway,” Gholami projected. By strategically developing this 31 GW potential, Norway can significantly advance its clean energy goals and reinforce its status as a renewable energy leader.
Sources
- Bright future: Solar power potential in Norway | BUILD UP
- LONGi Solar powers Norway’s largest rooftop solar project at Ahlsell …
- Norway Installed Over 166 MW New Solar Capacity In 2024
- Norway has potential to deploy 31 GW of solar in buildings
- Norway records 148.68 MW of new solar in 2024 – PV Magazine
- Iberdrola invests record €12 billion in 2024 – PV Tech
- Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2023 – 2027
