Belarus has significantly increased its climate ambition, officially submitting its third nationally determined contribution (NDC 3.0) to the UN with a pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The new headline target is an unconditional economy-wide reduction of 42% by 2035 from 1990 levels. This marks a substantial rise from the previous goal of a 35% reduction by 2030 and is accompanied by a conditional target of a 47% cut, contingent on international support.
The new NDC also includes a long-term strategy to achieve carbon neutrality in the second half of the 21st century, a first for the country, developed in parallel with a Low Emission Development Strategy to 2050.
Climate Goals and Challenges for Belarus emissions cut
Belarus has set an interim target of a 35% emissions reduction by 2030, with a base year of 1990. This progression demonstrates the Paris Agreement’s ratchet mechanism in action, with the new 2035 target being significantly more ambitious. For context, a 2021 report by Climate Analytics suggested that Belarus could cut emissions between 51% and 61% by 2030 to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C warming limit, a level of ambition seen in pledges like the South Korea emissions target. However, the report also noted that Belarus was not fully utilizing its renewable energy resources.
The country has expressed interest in developing solar, wind, and biomass power but has faced challenges due to a lack of investment and slow technological development. The new strategy directly addresses this with plans for fuel switching to natural gas and biomass. There is also an essential solar push in 2025, signaling a shift toward diversifying energy sources.
Despite these plans, Belarus remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, which make up 90% of its final energy consumption. The country imports all its fossil fuels, mainly from Russia. In 2020, Belarus became the first country in the region to commission a nuclear power plant, which accounted for 10% of its electricity generation by 2021.
Energy Transition and Emissions Trends for Belarus emissions cut
Belarus’s emissions have decreased by 48% since 1990, largely due to the economic restructuring following the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, emissions have remained relatively stable since 2000. The energy sector, accounting for 64% of the country’s emissions, is the primary focus of the new climate plan. Key initiatives include the electrification of industrial and residential heating systems. The country has already made progress with Belarus solar panel roofs and wind projects contributing to the grid.
The transport sector also features prominently, with ambitious targets to increase the share of urban electric transport to 40% and expand the electric vehicle fleet to 693,000 units by 2035.
Belarus’s carbon intensity is high, with significant emissions from stationary combustion, electricity, and heat production. The country’s carbon intensity was 0.38 kg of CO2 per kilowatt-hour in 2021, compared to 0.12 in the EU and 0.41 in the U.S. This is partly due to the dominance of fossil fuels and a need for greater investment in energy efficiency and the basics of solar panel manufacturing to build a domestic industry.
Policy and Governance for Belarus emissions cut
Belarus’s energy policy is heavily influenced by its dependence on fossil fuel imports and its ties with Russia. The country has established a long-term energy strategy with a focus on energy security, with events like the Belarus Energy Forum being crucial for shaping its direction. While the government’s previous target was a modest 8% renewable share by 2025, the new NDC signals a stronger commitment.
Notably, the NDC 3.0 plan places inclusivity at its core, aiming to be gender and youth responsive. The government has identified several barriers to achieving its goals, including limited financial resources, insufficient technological development, and a lack of public awareness. Addressing the solar panel manufacturing plant cost breakdown and securing the necessary solar panel manufacturing machines are key challenges.
International Cooperation and Support for Belarus emissions cut
Belarus’s new climate pledge emphasizes the need for international cooperation to achieve its ambitious targets, especially the conditional 47% reduction goal. The country has outlined specific areas where it seeks support, such as the development of renewable energy, energy efficiency projects, capacity building, and technology transfer related to the solar panel manufacturing process and sourcing of solar panel raw materials.
Despite the challenges, Belarus’s commitment to a 42% emissions reduction by 2035 represents a significant step forward. The success of this pledge will depend on addressing the identified barriers and securing the necessary international support to transition to a sustainable, low-carbon future.
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